Côte d’Ivoire is frequently positioned as one of the most economically and politically
stable states in West Africa, underpinned by sustained GDP growth averaging 6-7%
between 2012 and 2024. As of April 2026, projections from the International Monetary
Fund estimate real GDP growth at 6.2% for 2026. This trajectory reflects strong
macroeconomic fundamentals driven by high cocoa production, expanding
infrastructure, growth in the mining sector, hydrocarbon production (Baleine oilfield
phase 3), and sustained inflows of foreign direct investment. Within a region marked by
recurrent political instability, these indicators have reinforced Côte d’Ivoire’s reputation
as a key anchor of economic dynamism and relative order.
However, this narrative is complicated by assessments from the BTI Transformation
Index, which characterizes the country’s trajectory as one of “controlled stability.” This
framing suggests that while economic performance and institutional continuity remain
robust, political order is maintained through structured management of competition,
dissent, and civic participation. Stability, in this context, is not solely the outcome of
resilient institutions, but also of mechanisms through which political space is regulated.
The BTI further situates this model within a longer historical trajectory, highlighting a
divergence between economic and political transformation since independence in 1960.
While Côte d’Ivoire adopted a relatively liberal and outward-oriented economic system –
anchored in export agriculture and global market integration – its political system has
remained comparatively centralized. This divergence has persisted across successive
administrations, where periods of strong economic growth have coexisted with limited
political inclusion and constrained competition.
Contemporary governance reflects this continuity. Sustained economic expansion and
infrastructural development operate alongside concentrated executive authority and the
strategic management of electoral processes.

Key Developments
● Political Exclusion and Electoral Management
The October 2025 presidential election in Côte d’Ivoire illustrates how electoral
processes can function as mechanisms of political control within a broader framework
of “controlled stability.” The exclusion of key opposition figures, including former
president Laurent Gbagbo and opposition leader Tidjane Thiam, significantly narrowed
electoral competition. These disqualifications were carried out through decisions by the
Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and upheld by judicial processes, with
Gbagbo barred on the basis of prior convictions and Thiam’s candidacy challenged on
nationality grounds.
While formally grounded in legal and institutional procedures, these exclusions had
substantive political implications. The removal of prominent contenders, alongside
additional disqualifications, limited electoral competitiveness and shaped the conditions
under which incumbent President Alassane Ouattara secured a fourth term. In this
context, electoral administration functions not only as a regulatory mechanism but also
as a structuring instrument of political participation.
These dynamics were reinforced by reports from international media and civil society
organizations documenting arrests of opposition supporters and restrictions on protest
activity in the pre-election period, contributing to a political environment in which
dissent was increasingly managed through legal and security channels.
● Voter Turnout and Political Participation
The 2025 presidential election was marked by comparatively low participation, with
voter turnout recorded at 50.10% despite an expanded voter register. Data from the
Center for Journalism Innovation and Development indicates that out of 8,568,456
registered voters, only 4,292,474 cast ballots, producing 4,187,318 valid votes, alongside
105,156 invalid ballots and 66,788 blank ballots.

Rather than indicating apathy alone, this pattern reflects conditional participation,
where engagement is shaped by perceptions of electoral competitiveness and political
credibility. The decline in turnout, particularly among younger voters, aligns with
broader patterns observed in contexts where opposition participation is constrained and
outcomes appear predictable.
The contrast between rising registration and declining turnout further highlights a
disconnect between formal inclusion and actual participation. Overall, electoral stability
is accompanied by uneven civic engagement, where institutional continuity does not
translate into sustained participation.

● Regulation of Public Assembly
Findings by Amnesty International document heightened restrictions on public
assembly during the October 2025 electoral period. On 11 October, security forces
dispersed peaceful gatherings in Cocody, Abidjan using tear gas, with authorities
reporting 237 arrests in Abidjan and 18 in Dabou. Charges were not disclosed.
These events occurred within a broader framework of intensified pre-election control,
including the National Security Council’s authorization of nationwide deployment of
approximately 44,000 security personnel and restrictions on assemblies challenging
electoral decisions. Subsequent bans on opposition rallies further reduced formal
avenues for political expression.
The dispersal of protests reflects a pattern of pre-emptive regulation of civic space,
where security measures are used to manage dissent before it fully materialises. Overall,
these developments illustrate the securitisation of public assembly as part of a broader
framework of controlled political space.

● Intimidation, Arrests, and Constraints on Press Freedom
Independent media operates within an increasingly pressured environment, particularly
during the October 2025 electoral period. Reporters Without Borders documents rising
threats against journalists from both government-linked actors and opposition factions,
indicating that risks are embedded within broader electoral tensions rather than
confined to a single actor. In the lead-up to the election, two journalists were reportedly
arrested, underscoring heightened vulnerability during politically sensitive periods.
This reflects a broader historical pattern rather than isolated incidents. Evidence
compiled by the Media Foundation for West Africa (2010–2019) records at least 49
violations against journalists, including physical attacks, arbitrary arrests, detention,
kidnapping, sentencing, and threats. Perpetrators include state security forces,
government officials, and political party affiliates, indicating a diffuse and
institutionalised risk environment.
Amnesty International further shows that restrictions extend beyond journalism into
broader civic activity. In April, authorities detained ten teachers during a 48-hour strike
and sentenced the communications secretary of a teachers’ union to two years’
imprisonment. These actions demonstrate that constraints on expression extend beyond
media actors into wider forms of organised civic participation.
These developments indicate a sustained pattern of constraint rather than episodic
incidents. Between 2010 and 2025, recurring violations suggest a structurally embedded
environment in which civic and journalistic activity is periodically exposed to coercive
pressure, particularly during periods of mobilisation.

● Forced Evictions
A sustained pattern of large-scale forced evictions has been documented since January
2024, particularly in informal settlements in Abidjan. According to Amnesty

International, these operations are linked to urban redevelopment and flood-risk
mitigation, with approximately 176 sites identified for clearance.
Implementation reflects a highly centralised approach to urban governance. Evictions
have been carried out with limited consultation and inadequate notice, often involving
destruction of homes, schools, and businesses. Security forces have reportedly used tear
gas and crowd-control measures, intensifying displacement impacts.
While framed as urban modernization and public safety measures, the absence of
procedural safeguards indicates a governance approach that prioritises territorial
reorganisation over social protection. These forced evictions extend the logic of
controlled stability beyond electoral and media domains into urban governance,
illustrating how state authority regulates both political participation and physical access
to urban space.